Starlink Could Fail If It's Adopted Nationally

While figuring out the math in its Starlink Capacity Analysis report, the X-Labs team found that a large density of users in a given area would "saturate the network" so much, that Starlink would be unable to deliver a minimal upload speed threshold that meets the Federal Communications Commission's threshold for "broadband" service. If that were the case, which seems likely, the platform would consistently fail to meet the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's (NTIA) minimum performance requirements; which is necessary to secure funding from federal grant initiatives like the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) Program (which Starlink is aiming to do). That also means Starlink could fail if adopted nationally, because it's unable to provide the necessary speeds and connections, without factoring in potential finance issues. According to the X-Labs report, as of June 2025, an alarming 17% of users currently experience speeds that meet the FCC "broadband" definition. While that's relatively low, altered BEAD program rules would still allow Starlink to benefit from federal funds as a low-cost internet option. The NTIA's Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) program must take the lowest qualified bid, and can only consider alternatives if the next highest bid is priced within 15% of the lowest. There are concerns Starlink could take that lowest bid slot, with other options not being allowed for consideration because they're not within the 15% threshold. The potential strain of adopting the service at a national level and bringing on thousands of more customers could negatively impact network performance and experiences. That would be a shame for customers in rural or remote areas who are finally able to experience faster speeds and reliable connections and, frankly, need Starlink to stay connected because there are no other viable local options.