Mobile growth phase is over; prepare for consolidation at all levels

Based on indicators in the chip market, in the Open RAN software game, and the slowdown of mobile traffic growth, Mobile Experts' conclusion is that the growth phase is over in the public telecommunications market. Smartphones are saturated, and we will now see the industry consolidate at all levels. That thesis is now playing out like a train wreck. You can see it in the news. AT&T has swallowed the Dish network…eliminating the one big Open RAN software opportunity. Vodafone will follow the same strategy as AT&T, with a dominant incumbent providing software and a collection of hardware vendors. Open RAN software vendors have fizzled, leaving Ericsson dominating the field. Intel is evaporating. Marvell is slowing down its support for mobile baseband. We won’t see the same kind of consolidation that marked the 2G, 3G and 4G cycles—in those days, everyone saw the market as a growth business, and companies merged with an eye to the next big wave of deployment. This time, big mergers between network vendors aren’t likely. There aren’t enough of them to consolidate much farther, but we absolutely see consolidation at all levels anyway.