The great convergence: the state of US wireless competition

For nearly a decade, regulatory debates and industry analysis have centered on a single, persistent fear: that consolidation, specifically the merger of T-Mobile and Sprint, would lead to a "comfortable oligopoly" with rising prices and stagnating competition. During the Senate hearing on Capitol Hill with Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr on December 17th, 2025, lawmakers raised concerns about reduced market competition arising from DISH's exit from the 4th MNO race through its spectrum sale to Starlink. The financial data of the Big Three (Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile) and Cable MVNOs (Spectrum Mobile and Xfinity Mobile) from 2017 through 2025 refutes this hypothesis entirely. Competition in the US wireless market has never been this intense. Our comprehensive analysis of carrier profitability trends and net subscriber additions indicates that the US wireless market has evolved from a tiered hierarchy to a highly competitive equilibrium. We call this phenomenon "The Great Convergence." 

[XJ Wang was named Analyst and Director at Recon Analytics in 2024.]