The SNAP state cost-shift policy leaves the program’s existence to chance

Until the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the federal government alone was responsible for paying for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. Under OBBBA, starting in October 2027, states potentially will be required to pay a share of SNAP benefits, with the required share determined solely by the state’s “payment error rate” for the relevant fiscal year. After the first year, a state’s payment error rate from three years prior will determine the state’s cost shift, meaning that a state’s FY2026 payment error rate will be the basis for the FY2029 cost-shift amount. We have examined the harms that will result from OBBBA ending the guarantee of full federal funding for SNAP benefits. As we, the Congressional Budget Office, governors, officials in states like Alabama and Arizona, and other analysts have concluded, the state cost shift will likely lead some states to exit SNAP altogether while other states will restrict eligibility, cut benefits, or make it harder for eligible residents to enroll in SNAP.