MoffettNathanson: Even with bigger birds, Starlink still 'best suited to low-density markets'

SpaceX is targeting July 16 as the next possible test flight for Starship, a massive rocket that is critical to the eventual widespread launch and deployment of the larger and higher-capacity V3 Starlink satellites. If the test is successful, it could lead to orbital deployments of V3s. That will set up Starlink to beef up its broadband capacity and potentially expand its competitive scope. With the V3 designed to support downlinks of 1 Tbit/s and uplink capacity in the neighborhood of 200 Gbit/s—a roughly 10x increase when compared to today's V2 mini satellites—Starlink is being viewed as an emerging broadband threat that could extend well beyond its initial focus on rural areas with limited access to decent wireline connectivity. But a new analysis from MoffettNathanson suggests that Starlink's competitive impact will remain somewhat limited, even with the help of the V3. "Starlink will continue to be best suited for, and most successful in serving, low-density markets, both in the US and globally," said MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett, noting that Starlink's transition to the V3 is expected to take about five years.