Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs

How has AI impacted the labor market? Since generative AI was first introduced nearly three years ago, surveys show widespread public anxiety about AI’s potential for job losses. While it is impossible to accurately predict the future, we can examine how U.S. employment has changed since ChatGPT’s release in November 2022. A Yale University study indicates that the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT’s release 33 months ago, undercutting fears that AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor across the economy. Key takeaways include:

• While the occupational mix is changing more quickly than it has in the past, it is not a large difference and predates the widespread introduction of AI in the workforce.

• Currently, measures of exposure, automation, and augmentation show no sign of being related to changes in employment or unemployment.

• Better data is needed to fully understand the impact of AI on the labor market.

• We plan on updating this analysis regularly moving forward to see how the impact of AI on the labor market changes over time.