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The reelection of President Barack Obama along with another politically divided Congress means the tech policy battles from the past few years are going to intensify, even if a few of the faces fighting are about to change. During a second term, President Obama can capitalize on new momentum to push his agenda to boost the country’s cybersecurity defenses, improve the nation’s wireless system and develop rules to assuage consumers’ online privacy fears. But greeting Obama 2.0, so to speak, will be a new cast of characters with a familiar story — a Congress with some fresh faces, yet the partisanship that’s stymied tech legislation in sessions past.
With the election results still fresh, there are some early takeaways for tech.
- The administration can double down on its tech policy program
- There will be new leadership on tech issues in Congress
- An early fight: high-skilled immigration
Obama 2.0 will revitalize tech agenda
The Internet will be at the center of some of the knottiest policy fights President Barack Obama is likely to face in his second term. Privacy, cybersecurity and piracy are the top issues, but the technology industry may also press for tax code reform and more visas for foreigners with math and science skills. The Administration is likely to continue pressing to free up airwaves to satisfy the demands of smartphones and tablets. The President will likely to have make appointments to the Federal Trade Commission which regulates how private Web companies collect and use personal information.
The Internet Remains a Tangle of Issues
Although voters changed little in Washington, returning President Barack Obama to the White House and leaving Congress still contentiously divided, the election has stirred hope that the Bay Area could get a boost from the president's next four years.
With Obama's previous preoccupation -- health reform -- already passed, "now he can say, 'time to tackle the next big problems," said Russell Hancock, CEO of Joint Venture Silicon Valley. He and others say Obama's priorities should include everything from putting more people to work and further boosting cleantech industries to shoring up the housing sector and taking other steps to reinvigorate business. But some experts caution that President Obama can only do so much, especially if Congress and global markets don't cooperate.
Obama victory stirs hopes for Bay Area economy
Technology companies in San Francisco could soon reap a windfall. A ballot proposition for which the industry lobbied will save them millions in payroll taxes. Proposition E, backed by the venture capitalist Ron Conway, passed with a resounding 70 percent of votes. It was among the most prominent examples of the tech sector flexing its political muscle in city affairs. The proposition replaces a payroll tax with a tax on gross earnings. It is particularly attractive for venture-funded companies that hire well-paid staff, but are slow to bring in revenue. The business tax represents the city’s second largest source of revenue, after property tax, but tends to fluctuate dramatically, says the nonprofit San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association. Proposition E replaces it with a gross receipts tax, which the nonprofit body estimates will bring more stability to city coffers.
San Francisco Tech Companies Win a Proposition to Save on Taxes
While the nation’s votes were being counted, more than 66 million viewers were watching news coverage on a baker’s dozen of television channels, according to estimates released by Nielsen.
Viewership came close to matching the modern-day election night ratings record set back in 2008, when 71.5 million viewers watched from 8 to 11 p.m. This year, about 66.8 million viewers were watching on one of the 13 networks with news coverage counted by Nielsen. Hourly ratings were not immediately available for the broadcast networks, so it was impossible to say how many viewers stayed awake for President Obama’s victory speech at 1:45 a.m. But the hourly ratings for Fox News, CNN and MSNBC showed a stark difference in viewer behavior. Fox News had 10.1 million viewers in the 11 p.m. hour when it named Mr. Obama the winner of the election, but just 2.7 million viewers in the 1 a.m. hour when Mr. Obama spoke. CNN, on the other hand, had 10.7 million viewers at 11 p.m., and still had 8.2 million at 1 a.m., indicating a desire to stay up for the president’s speech.
Election Night Ratings Come Close to 2008 Record
Some $6 billion is estimated to have been spent on 2012 election advertising across all media, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That's actually less than the auto industry spends on TV advertising in a year, but it's more than enough to make a 4-year-old girl in Colorado cry out of frustration. Given the inundation of media markets in swing states, is it conceivable that political ad spending has hit a ceiling? According to Kantar Media estimates, $1.1 billion was spent on local TV in 12 states for the presidential race alone, plus another $200 million for local cable. It's not only a lot of money, it's also a lot of inventory -- of which there is only so much. Time Warner Cable, for example, noted during earnings this week that it had carved additional ad inventory out of the time it normally reserves to promote programming to serve demand by political advertisers. But even if all inventory were maxed out, that doesn't mean spending won't continue to climb. More money could be spent on TV ads for presidential candidates in 2016 if rates paid by Super PACs such as Restore Our Future and 501(c)(4)s like Americans for Prosperity soar higher, according to Elizabeth Wilner, VP at Kantar Media's Campaign Media Analysis Group. Those independent groups were sometimes paying tens of thousands of dollars more than campaigns -- which are legally guaranteed the lowest available rate for the air time they're seeking -- for a 30-second spot. "The station's going to charge that group as much as it dares," Ms. Wilner said. "[But] there's a question of how much higher it could possibly go."
Has Political Ad Spending Hit a Ceiling? Sorry, But No
The 2012 online and TV ad barrage may feel like it came to a screeching halt on November 7 — but don’t get too comfortable with that. Before long, outside mega-dollar groups are expected to start a new political advertising blitz, this time aimed at the fiscal cliff or possible sequester.
“It’s still too early to get into details on this but we'll be engaged,” said Jonathan Collegio, spokesman for the GOP-allied super PAC American Crossroads. “The specs are still unclear.” Outside groups such as Crossroads — which spent tens of millions on the Web in this year’s elections — also engage in issue-oriented ad campaigns. During the debt ceiling debacle last year, for instance, they aired TV ads and blanketed the Internet with messages pressuring Republicans not to cave. Social platforms expect that conversation to bleed online.
Groups prepare new round of ads
AT&T announced a plan to invest $14 billion in expanding its wireless and U-Verse service around the country. At the same time, the company submitted a petition to the Federal Communications Commission asking for an end to the "conventional public-utility-style regulation."
"AT&T believes that this regulatory experiment will show that conventional public-utility-style regulation is no longer necessary or appropriate in the emerging all-IP ecosystem," the company wrote in its FCC filing. "Customers are abandoning obsolescent [time-division multiplexing] services, but AT&T and other incumbent carriers still must be prepared to serve every household in their service territories on demand. Thus, the costs of maintaining those networks remain in place, and every loss of another customer increases the average cost per line of serving the customers that remain." Some industry watchers are worried such a move would make an end-run around existing regulations that require a baseline level of phone service under federal law. If the FCC heeds AT&T’s advice, some fear there will be even further entrenchment of the dominant wired carriers, like AT&T and Verizon, who are pushing more profitable wireless services.
AT&T is glad to expand service, but wants pesky FCC regulations dropped
Internet data usage in the U.S. has continued to rise, jumping 120 percent in the past year.
That’s according to a study from Sandvine, an analysis firm that releases an annual report on the world’s data networks. The report also underscored a rise in online video viewing, reporting that traffic to Netflix makes up approximately one-third of the bandwidth use in North America. Other streaming services, such as Hulu or Amazon, make up just over 1 percent of traffic each, Techradar reported. Meanwhile, YouTube represented more than one-fifth of all the downstream traffic on mobile networks in Europe. Despite all the streaming video in North America and Europe, both were outstripped by Internet usage in Asia. According to the study, people there consumed 659 MB of data per month, up 10 percent over the same period last year.
Internet data usage jumps; Netflix makes up one-third of bandwidth use
Past the chicken coop and up a hill, in a spot on campus where the wooden buildings of the Mountain School can seem farther away than the mountains of western New Hampshire, there sometimes can be found a single bar, sometimes two, of cellphone reception. The spot, between the potato patch and a llama named Nigel, is something of an open secret at the school in this remote corner of Vermont where simplicity is valued over technology.
“We’re at the periphery of civilization here,” said Doug Austin, a teacher. But that is about to change. The school offers high school juniors, many from elite private institutions in the Northeast, a semester to immerse themselves in nature. The students make solo camping trips to a nearby mountain for a day or two of reflection, and practice orienteering skills without a GPS device. Between English and environmental science classes, they care for farm animals, chop wood and read the works of Robert Frost. And in the process, many say, they stop scouring the campus for its sparse bars of reception and lose the habit of checking their Facebook pages at every opportunity. As the rest of the country has gotten high-speed Internet, Vershire (population 730) has lagged, relying on land lines shared among neighbors, with dial-up and (for homes that face the right way) satellite Internet service that cuts out when the weather is rough. But cellphone signals have been seeping in, and soon there will be more. This fall, technicians will start laying fiber-optic cable to bring high-speed Internet to the town. Cellphone coverage is expected soon after. “Right now we’re the third-world country of Vermont,” said Gene Craft, the town clerk. “We’d like to be in touch.” That presents a challenge for the Mountain School: how to regulate the use of smartphones and other devices that serve as a constant distraction for 21st-century teenagers, who are here to engage with the rural setting and with one another.
A School Distanced From Technology Faces Its Intrusion