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[Commentary] An organization called National Popular Vote is trying to convince state legislatures to award their electoral votes not on the basis of the popular votes in their state as they now do, but rather on the national popular vote. If NPV can persuade states representing 270 electoral votes to join in, the national popular vote would pick the president. That would mean that today's presidential swing states (and their TV stations) would be collateral damage as candidates and their backers shift TV ad dollars to national networks. Any local broadcaster that is penciling in big gobs of presidential money in 2016 would be wise to keep an eye on NPV.


Don’t Take Presidential Dollars for Granted
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[Commentary] In 2012, the presidential nominee who was outspent on TV was not, in fact, out-advertised. Not only that, but to view the presidential air war just in the context of dollars would be to overlook how President Barack Obama won the election -- by targeting his way to a second term.

CMAG projected that about $1.1 billion would be spent on broadcast TV advertising in the presidential race, primary and general election advertising included. And in fact, our preliminary estimate for actual spend is $953 million. That's an immense sum well worth discussion and debate, particularly given the ratio of dollars spent on advertising to votes that ultimately were moved by it. Therein lies the rub. In politics, TV advertising only matters at the margin, influencing a small pool of undecided voters and possibly boosting turnout among likely supporters. This means that increasingly eye-popping sums of money are spent to affect the choices of fewer and fewer people. TV advertising is the single biggest undertaking of any campaign: about 75% of everything a candidate raises goes to support it, and about two-thirds of all ad dollars go to local broadcast TV. For faceless outside groups that exist solely for the purpose of advertising, the proportion of funds raised that is spent on TV is surely higher. Because the impact of the advertising is at the margins, the path to understanding it leads not through the tonnage but through the targeting and messaging. As anticipated, Republicans did indeed outspend Democrats on broadcast TV in the general election contest by CMAG's preliminary estimate of $479 million to $396 million, but Obama's campaign either held its own or retained the edge in many aspects of the air war. Among them: Tone, Message -control, Bargain buying, and Demographics vs. Economics.


Romney and Republicans Outspent Obama, But Couldn't Out-Advertise Him
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It was supposed to be a "killer app," but a system deployed to volunteers by Mitt Romney's presidential campaign may have done more harm to Romney's chances on Election Day—largely because of a failure to follow basic best practices for IT projects.

Called "Orca," the effort was supposed to give the Romney campaign its own analytics on what was happening at polling places and to help the campaign direct get-out-the-vote efforts in the key battleground states of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Colorado. Instead, volunteers couldn't get the system to work from the field in many states—in some cases because they had been given the wrong login information. The system crashed repeatedly. At one point, the network connection to the Romney campaign's headquarters went down because Internet provider Comcast reportedly thought the traffic was caused by a denial of service attack. Here's how it happened.


Inside Team Romney's whale of an IT meltdown
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Rush Limbaugh couldn’t have been more right. Months before the election, the conservative radio host made a prediction: “If Obama wins, the Republican Party is going to try to maneuver things so conservatives get blamed.” And that’s exactly what’s happening.

On the night of Nov. 6, shortly after President Barack Obama won reelection, Steve Schmidt went on NBC News and called on GOP leaders to “stand up” against the extreme elements in the party that the Republican strategist believes are leading it down the wrong path, even singling out Limbaugh by name. Days later on MSNBC, Joe Scarborough criticized Republicans for taking cues from unnamed pundits “who make tens of millions of dollars engaging in niche marketing” that the host complained provides a misleading picture of the nation’s electorate. Columnist David Frum last week slammed the “conservative entertainment complex” that had “fleeced, exploited and lied to” Republicans, ensuing doom on Election Day. “These people have made politics a theater for identity politics for a segment of America, rather than a way to solve collective problems,” said Frum, referring to conservative media commentators. “What is happening now, and it’s disturbing, is that this complex has sold the idea that conservatives are the real majority in America. That claim has been exposed as false. But they are turning on the country and leading their viewers toward alienation and rejection.”


Media fight on the right over GOP
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According to Twitter, there were 31 million tweets on Election Day, with the site hitting a peak of 327,452 tweets-per-minute the moment TV networks called the race for President Obama. That was a record pace for the micro-blogging network, and the company considers it a point of pride that Twitter never once went down during the surge. As Twitter design chief Doug Bowman noted, “RIP, Fail Whale.” Yet if you wanted to keep close tabs on who was winning Election night, Twitter failed you. The same goes for much of the rest of the Web. The best way to figure out what was going on was to go old-school: Turn on the news, sit back, and relax. TV’s best election geeks—especially CNN’s John King and NBC’s Chuck Todd—were faster, more accurate, and more thoughtful than most sources you could find online.


Election Night’s Big Winner: Television
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This was supposed to be the year in which TV made all the difference in politics—specifically, hundreds of millions of bucks’ worth of TV ads dumped onto the air by virtually unlimited Super PAC spending. As the New York Times reports, instead conservative anti-Obama donors, who made the vast majority of Super PAC donations, spent over $300 million on the presidential race alone, and didn’t even get a lousy T-shirt.

Still, one of the things we saw was that, in what was a markedly stable race overall, TV can still move the polls on a few important occasions. The most striking example this time out was the first Presidential debate: it didn’t win the election for Mitt Romney, but it did shift the polls sharply his way over a week and a half. In my column in TIME’s election issue, I look back at that debate, how it came across in the moment—and, at least as important, how it was amplified by the instant spin room of social media and the reactions of pundits in the weeks after. But beyond the debate, the larger thing 2012 showed us is that election TV is much like the rest of TV today. On a day to day basis, it’s less dominant, because of audience fragmentation and the increasing importance of the Internet. But—for some of the same reasons—a very few live-TV events (or surprises like the 47% video) have a massive, multiplied reach and effect.


Dead Tree Alert: Why TV Still Matters in Politics
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If Karl Rove was an NFL coach and not a political strategist, he would probably be looking for a new job about now.

If Karl Rove was an NFL coach and not a political strategist, he would probably be looking for a new job about now. Organizations co-founded by the GOP’s most effective fundraiser spent more than $175 million only to see President Barack Obama win a second term and Democrats actually gain seats in the U.S. Senate. According to a Center for Public Integrity review of spending records, Rove’s super PAC, American Crossroads, went 3-10 during the 2012 election cycle, while Crossroads GPS, its nonprofit counterpart, went 7-17. The two groups, which were both active in a handful of contests, had a combined 9-21 record. When asked by Fox News host Chris Wallace on Election Night if his groups’ spending was “worth it,” Rove was unapologetic: "Look, if groups like Crossroads were not active, this race would have been over a long time ago.” Meanwhile, Jonathan Collegio, the spokesman for the two Crossroads organizations, has maintained that “sub-optimal candidate quality” contributed to Republican losses in the Senate and that his groups will be a “permanent entity on the center-right.”


Rove-affiliated groups spend $175 million, lose 21 of 30 races
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It’s no surprise that the election would put the hurt on web news sites. But which outlets would do well and which would flame out? Yottaa decided to gather data on how all the major outlets would perform, and now the results are in.

The company set up its monitoring service to track performance and availability of NBC, ABC, CBS News, Fox News, CNN, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Politico, C-SPAN and other news sites as well as Twitter and Facebook from the Friday before election day onward. The monitors ran IE9 to mimic end-user experience from a half-dozen North American cities. The monitor visited each site every 5 minutes and recorded what a person would have experienced if she had been clicking on the site at that time. The monitors captured and logged HTTP errors, connection failures and “excessively slow” page load times, according to a Yottaa blog post. And boy, some of those load times got extremely and excessively slow as election day wore on. From 7 pm ET until Nov 7 at 2 am ET, most of the news sites “came to a halt,” according to Yottaa. Some “consistently took as long as 50 seconds to 60 seconds to load.” The election took its toll on Twitter and Facebook as well. These pages usually load in less than 5 seconds but on election night, President Obama’s Facebook page’s load times slowed to 25 seconds after 11 pm ET and didn’t recover till after 1 am ET.


Study: News sites take a huge hit on election night
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Apple and HTC have brought an end to their lawsuits against each other in the first settlement between Apple and a maker of Android smartphones. In a statement issued Nov 10, the two companies said the settlement includes the dismissal of all current lawsuits and sets up a 10-year license agreement that includes rights to current and future patents held by both parties.

Apple and HTC, which is based in Taiwan, said the terms of the deal were confidential. “We are glad to have reached a settlement with HTC,” Timothy D. Cook, the chief executive of Apple, said in a statement. “We will continue to stay laser-focused on product innovation.” “HTC is pleased to have resolved its dispute with Apple, so HTC can focus on innovation instead of litigation,” Peter Chou, HTC’s chief executive, said in a statement.


Apple Settles Patent Suit With HTC HTC, Apple Settle Patent Fight (WSJ)
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The most noteworthy piece of the just-announced Apple-HTC settlement is that the iPhone maker has a price.

Until now, Apple indicated only that it wanted other companies not to copy it. It didn’t seem interested in licensing its patents. Late CEO Steve Jobs seemed more interested in crushing Android then trying to extract royalties from those that use Google’s operating system. By contrast, Microsoft has also said it believes Android devices infringe its products, but has been plenty happy to license its patents. Under the 10-year deal announced on Saturday night, however, Apple appears to be following suit, allowing HTC to continue to do business as usual — and collecting a fee in return. Also surprising is the fact that HTC is apparently not being forced to pay an arm and a leg for that privilege.


Does HTC Deal Signal End to Apple’s Thermonuclear War Against Android?