Preliminary Report of the Independent International Scientific Panel on AI

Recent years have seen rapid, and in some areas accelerating, progress in a range of AI capabilities. These gains have unlocked useful applications across science, health, agriculture, accessibility, knowledge work and information technology, including in the development of AI itself. AI adoption has accelerated broadly, and unevenly, across countries and sectors. While the shift towards AI agents is under way, their future adoption and economic impacts will likely be shaped by continued improvements in their ability to accomplish knowledge work with little or no human oversight. AI development entails risks, with potential negative impacts on human rights, social systems and the environment. Looking ahead, the gap between rapidly improving capabilities and effective risk management methods may lead to catastrophic outcomes. AI risks are unevenly distributed across populations and countries, while AI development and the wealth it creates are highly concentrated. Realizing the full benefits of AI while minimizing its risks requires good governance. Policymakers seeking to shape this governance face an evidence dilemma: they need evidence to make informed consequential governance decisions, but by the time the evidence exists, it might be too late to make them, as the evidence lags behind the pace of AI development. The capacity to act on existing evidence of AI risks and impacts is unevenly distributed. Concrete next steps to close the above gaps exist, but each requires sustained investment in Member State capacity to shape, evaluate and deploy AI.