The Plan Got it Right: 300 MHz is 10-15 Verizon-Size Networks

Imagine if five new networks with the capacity of Verizon's were built across the United States. Canadian wireless prices are dropping 10-15% because of new entrants. Xavier Niel's fourth French mobile net will bring down prices 17%, Merrill Lynch estimates.

The heart of the National broadband Plan is freeing more spectrum to bring in competition, with 300 MHz expected by 2015 and 500 MHz by 2020. Letting Phil Falcone's Harbinger use satellite spectrum for terrestrial, an AWS-3 auction, and other moves already under way will bring in 100 MHz, more than enough for 3 new Verizon-sized networks. That can be huge, if new entrants can succeed in taking major market share from AT&T and Verizon. More spectrum is not guaranteed to work -- Verizon and AT&T are at 60+% market share and pulling away -- but politics excluded any of the more effective moves. Although the Federal Communications Commission has apparently lost on using the 10 MHz 'D' block and some of the plans like relocating TV stations have issues, even half of what the plan asked could be huge.