Moffett: 'No discernable patterns' in the long-term value of spectrum

Despite the massive $44.9 billion collectively spent on spectrum licenses during the Federal Communications Commission's recent AWS-3 auction, Wall Street analyst Craig Moffett believes that the value of spectrum is not necessarily increasing. Instead, he said that the value of spectrum continues to remain a moving target, making it virtually impossible to predict what will happen during 2016's incentive auction of TV broadcasters' 600 MHz licenses. Spectrum "is not a simple commodity," said Craig Moffett, senior analyst of investment research firm MoffettNathanson.

Moffett said that spectrum buyers have paid a wide range of prices for spectrum during the past decade, making it difficult to forecast what spectrum licenses will sell for in the future. In one graphic that covered both auctions and secondary-market transactions, Moffett showed that per MHz-POP prices for mid-band spectrum peaked at $4.18 in 2000, fell, and then rose again to $2.53 in 2014. Meanwhile, prices for low-band spectrum hit $3.22 in 2001 and then jumped to $4.64 in 2013. "There are no discernable patterns," Moffett noted.