August 2009

SNL Kagan says television station ad revenue slipped 17% this year, but is poised to recover next year, with $18.5 billion in revenue forecasted. That represents a 5.2% gain from 2009's forecasted $17.6 billion. But Kagan emphasized the importance of non-traditional revenue, such as cash from retransmission consent deals and the Web. Retransmission revenues topped $500 million in 2008 and are projected to grow to $738.7 million in 2009, crossing the billion-dollar threshold by 2011. Kagan also estimates that stations' online revenues will eclipse $1 billion by 2012.

According to Borrell Associates, print newspaper ad revenues are expected to increase 2.4% next year, and then in single digits over the next few years, through 2014. According to Colby Atwood, president of Borrell Associates, the outlook for the industry will improve even more after next year. By 2014, newspaper income will be up a total of 8.7% over the 2009 figures, to slightly more than $39 billion (not including online revenues). But this doesn't mean the old business model is coming back, the group said. "Even at 2014 levels of just under $30 billion, newspaper advertising won't be anything near the $55 billion we saw earlier this decade. Nor will it ever return to that level."

Apple Inc is worth around $140 billion. It is also the most watched, envied, admired and adored company in the world. But is it worth anything without Steve Jobs? It is a company formed around his personality and inspiration. A Jobsless Apple might seek a merger with Google. The two companies are rapidly converging, a fact that recently led to the resignation of the Apple director Eric Schmidt, the chairman and chief executive of Google. He had been on the Apple board for three years, and was forced out because of suspicions that links between the two companies could endanger competition. One other director of both companies remains: Arthur Levinson, former chief executive of Genentech. The key areas of convergence are, first, mobile phones. There is Apple's iPhone and there is Google's Android, not a phone in itself, but an operating system that can be used by other companies. Google also produce a web browser called Chrome, which competes with Apple's Safari. And, most importantly, Google is working on a computer operating system, also called Chrome, which may well be a very serious competitor for Mac OS X. Apple's iPhone "apps" also compete with many free Google applications. The point is that both companies are aiming to seize dominance of the world market from Microsoft. Microsoft's Windows still dominates world computing in spite of its failure to innovate. The loss of Jobs's genius for products would mean Google's innovation and Apple's design and market sense would be a very good fit, although antitrust regulators might disagree.

[Commentary] On August 11, 2009, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors in a unanimous vote became the first elected body in the United States to stand up to Hate Radio. Their resolution urges "the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to conduct a comprehensive investigation on hate speech in the media, allowing public participation via public hearings, and asks the NTIA to update its 1993 report on the Role of Telecommunications in Hate Crimes." But even if the FCC and NTIA do quantify that which we already innately understand -- that hate and lies on the radio do incite violence -- they have little power to change the situation. It took an act of Congress to get us into this media mess, and it will take another to get us out of it. [Sue Wilson is the Emmy Winning Director of the media reform documentary "Broadcast Blues."]