What Happens if Apple Drops Google From Its Browser?

[Commentary] When Google reports its fourth-quarter earnings, one subject that is almost guaranteed to come up is the prospect that Apple could replace Google as the default search engine on Safari, the basic browser on all of its devices. The search contract between the companies is believed to be up for renewal in 2015.

So let’s say that Apple dumps Google in favor of another search engine like Yahoo or Microsoft’s Bing. How bad would that be for Google? According to various reports from analysts, the impact on Google’s bottom line would be minimal. There’s even an argument that it could come out ahead. Central to these analyses are two questions that are difficult to answer. The first: How much does Google pay Apple to be the default search engine on iPhones, iPads and Macs? Estimates are all over the place, from 35 percent to 80 percent of the revenue made for searches that go through the Google search bar. The second: If Apple put a new search engine on Safari, how many people would just switch back to Google?