How Big Is Apple’s China Mobile iPhone Opportunity?

With 280 carrier partners across more than 100 countries, Apple’s addressable market for the iPhone these days has been estimated by some to encompass upward of four billion subscribers. With a reach that broad, opportunities for big market share gains aren’t as easy to come by as they once were — which is why we may soon see that long-in-the-offing deal to bring the iPhone to China Mobile.

If Apple were to ink a deal with China Mobile in the near future, the company could easily sell an additional five million iPhones in the next quarter, based on three percent penetration of the 3G subscriber base of 180 million. And as penetration increased quarter to quarter, iPhone sales would rise accordingly, so that by the time the fourth quarter of 2014 rolls around, China Mobile could be notching iPhone sales of 12.5 million units. Taken together with that year’s other three quarters, Marshall predicts that China Mobile could spike Apple’s iPhone sales by 38.7 million units in calendar 2014. With more than 700 million subscribers, China Mobile is the largest wireless carrier in the world, and, as ISI analyst Brian Marshall notes, it’s one of the few remaining carriers that can really move the needle on iPhone sales. Approximately 180 million China Mobile customers use the company’s 3G network, and Marshall figures that’s a good proxy for gauging the size of the iPhone opportunity it presents for Apple. And that opportunity is massive