Estimated Impact of the Stimulus Package on Employment and Economic Output

When the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), also known as the economic stimulus package, was being considered, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation estimated that it would increase budget deficits by $787 billion between fiscal years 2009 and 2019. CBO now estimates that the total impact over the 2009-2019 period will amount to $814 billion. Close to half of that impact is estimated to occur in fiscal year 2010, and about 70 percent of ARRA's budgetary impact will have been realized by the close of that fiscal year.

CBO estimates that ARRA's policies:
Raised the level of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.7 percent and 4.5 percent,
Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points,
Increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million, and
Increased the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs by 2.0 million to 4.8 million compared with what those amounts would have been otherwise.

• Raised the level of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.7 percent and 4.5 percent,
• Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points,
• Increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.3 million, and
• Increased the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs by 2.0 million to 4.8 million compared with what those amounts would have been otherwise.