Despite AT&T’s defeat, wireless deals will continue

AT&T has thrown in the towel on its acquisition of T-Mobile and in doing so basically kept the mobile industry stalled through much of 2011 as experts, executives and consumer organizations tried to figure out what such a large deal would mean. Now that the deal is off the table, the industry can return to solving the big question that plagues wireless in the U.S., and that question is how the heck will operators get the spectrum and build the networks they need to support robust demand for 4G wireless services and still make money.

Now that the deal is officially dead, and we know a bit more about the terms of the breakup fee, it looks like T-Mobile might be star of the wireless industry in 2012 as everyone except AT&T and Verizon try to make a deal. This leaves the smaller players such as Leap Wireless and Metro PCS to wrangle some kind of partnership with T-Mobile, now that it may have some of the $4 billion breakup fee and some of AT&T’s airwaves. Dish Networks, the satellite TV player that’s trying to become a mobile operator, has cash and the desire to be a wireless operator with T-Mobile’s help, but the history of satellite guys getting into mobile is pretty iffy. The most interesting mobile operator to watch in the coming year might be Sprint as it faces a decision as to if it wants to pursue T-Mobile, stick with Clearwire or continue stringing along LightSquared, which plans to build a 4G LTE network but is having a hard time moving forward. When it comes to 4G, like Velma Kelly in Chicago, Sprint simply cannot do it alone. No one can, which means AT&T could try again with a more politically acceptable deal.