Analyst: Nielsen's Revised Sample Won’t Immediately Impact Ad Market

If a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step, Nielsen's plans to expand its sample to include non-linear TV deliveries is a bit like lacing up one’s boots before planting one foot in front of the other.

While Nielsen's goal is to capture "all viewing in all homes," thereby validating the deliveries that occur beyond the bounds of the tube, the new criteria won’t take effect until the start of the 2013-14 broadcast season. As such, during the spring upfront negotiations the networks won’t be making ratings guarantees against any additional deliveries. In other words, as broadcasters complete the process of securing commitments for as much as 80 percent of their seasonal ad inventory, any ancillary viewership in the fall will go unrewarded. Should the new standard demonstrate an actionable increase in non-linear viewing, those deliveries conceivably can be sold in the scatter market. Analysts weighing in on the announcement said it was unlikely that the new measurement scheme would pay off in higher ratings, at least in the short term.