An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S.
The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. But did the polls fail? And if so why? Those are the central questions addressed in this report, which was commissioned by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). The committee conducted an extensive investigation of the performance of pre-election polls in 2016. While the general public reaction was that “the polls failed,” we found the reality to be more complex – a position held by a number of industry experts Here are some of the conclusions:
- The national polls were generally correct and accurate by historical standards.
- The state polls had a historically bad year in terms of forecasting the state outcomes.
- In key states, the polls’ under-estimation of Trump’s support was pivotal.