Donald Trump's general election media problem
[Commentary] In the Republican primaries, Donald Trump managed the news media to his advantage. The extensive coverage he received helped him win. Before explaining why, a few caveats: It is hard to determine if media coverage affects a presidential candidate's electoral fortunes. It is hard to separate the effect of how the media chooses to cover campaign events from the events themselves. (That is, would the event have had the same effect regardless of how it was covered?) Also, when users of different news sources have divergent opinions, it is hard to tell whether outlets are persuading their audiences or if the consumers are selecting news sources based on their preexisting views. All that said, Trump likely benefited from how the news media covered the primary campaign. He received substantially more coverage than the other Republican candidates, especially on cable news and talk radio.
The media environment poses a major challenge for Trump in the general election campaign. The key question is whether most major Republican politicians will unite behind him — not just officially endorse him but also refrain from criticizing his positions and rhetoric. If not— if substantial numbers of major Republican figures refuse to say supportive things to reporters about Trump's campaign — it will likely lead to fairly negative media coverage.
[Jonathan M. Ladd is an associate professor of public policy and government at Georgetown University]