How Ted Cruz used good political science to design a disastrous mailer
Over the weekend, Iowans began reporting receiving strange mailers from Sen Ted Cruz's (R-TX) presidential campaign. The mailings didn't include any arguments for Sen Cruz's candidacy or attacks on his opponents. Instead, they included the recipient's personal voting "score" (a percentage from 0 to 100) and "grade" (from A to F), as well as those for their neighbors. The yellow notices included a big red bar on top reading, "VOTING VIOLATION". Tom Hinkeldey, one of the recipients who tweeted a picture of a mailer, said that it included a real list of his actual neighbors.
The Sen Cruz campaign immediately confirmed that the fliers were real (though spokesperson Rick Tyler told Rumpf that the targeting was "very narrow"), and the candidate himself declared, "I will apologize to nobody for using every tool we can to encourage Iowa voters to come out and vote." Additionally, there's some convincing evidence that the Cruz numbers aren't based on people's actual voting history at all, but were in fact entirely fabricated. This tactic and ones like it draw on a hugely influential 2008 study by political scientists Alan Gerber, Donald Green, and Christopher Larimer.