[Commentary] Africa is the world’s final frontier for the Internet.
It has 1 billion people across some 50 countries. The average Internet penetration rate is so low, 14 percent, that it has nowhere to go but up. According to the ITU, fixed broadband subscriptions in Africa have not grown much and stand at just 0.3 percent today, but mobile broadband subscriptions have increased more than 50 fold in 6 years. When it comes to broadband, Africa’s future is mobile. Looking at how Africa has innovated with mobile provides a valuable lesson for many in the developed world who think that fiber to the home (FTTH) is the only choice for the future. Mobile will be the choice for Africa going forward because of its low cost relative to other networks, the geo-demographic features of the continent, and users’ comfort with the technology.
Informa, a leading telecom research firm, estimates mobile broadband connections in Africa to grow to 250 million by the end of 2015. These projections also include a doubling of smartphone ownership. However, the majority of Africans still connect to the Internet with ordinary phones and 2G and 3G networks. In the US, broadband will continue to be a key technology policy issue in 2014. The debate will pit the emotional, religious supporters of fiber against the rational, pragmatic perspective that a variety of technologies are needed to meet a variety of uses. In 2014 we can expect to hear more paeans that FTTH is the panacea to the world’s problems. To be sure, FTTH is an important technology, but it is should not be the one and only choice when considering a range of solutions to meet the broadband future. Its key disadvantage is that it is not mobile. Mobility and access to the Internet on mobile devices is ever more important. The broadband future demands not one, but many technologies. The US should take a lesson from Africa -- keeping an open mind in regards to future needs and technologies is a far better strategy than religiously subscribing to one technology as the only way forward.
[Dec 26]