May 2011

Reports suggest studios should be afraid, very afraid (of Netflix)

A couple of new reports this week suggest that Netflix's effect on Hollywood will be an even scarier than movie moguls thought.

Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney says Netflix's US customer base will double to 50 million by 2013, and the company is beginning to grow even faster elsewhere. That's what's happening in Canada, Netflix's first market outside the U.S. In less than a year, it has signed up 8% of Canadian households - a task it took five years to complete in the U.S. Netflix will likely be in two to three more nations by year-end 2012, Mahaney wrote. By Citi's calculations, expanding to 20 countries in Europe and Latin America will add 43 million households if Netflix matches the percentage of households it serves in the U.S. now. That changes the balance of power in the running tug-of-war between studios and Netflix over what movies Netflix is allowed to stream, and what it should pay for them.

A second report this week comes from Digital Entertainment Group, saying that sales of DVDs fell 20% in the first quarter to $2.1 billion, further crippling a revenue stream studios have counted on.

Testimony preview: Genachowski on network neutrality

Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Julius Genachowski will argue at a House hearing May 5 that antitrust laws alone cannot do the job of protecting the open Internet.

He will testify before the House Judiciary Competition subcommittee. Subcommittee Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) has proposed tweaking antitrust laws to preserve the open Internet, rather than enforcing FCC rules. Chairman Genachowski will essentially oppose that strategy on Thursday. He will say he does not think that antitrust laws alone could preserve an open Internet or provide the regulatory certainty he says was another aim of the rules. He also argues against adopting new antitrust laws on Internet openness, saying that would be a "problematic approach, ill-suited to the fast-changing nature of Internet technology." He agrees with the Supreme Court that, "while statutes are hard to change in light of new developments in network technology or markets, expert administrative agencies have flexible processes for dealing with the unexpected and are, accordingly, better suited for handling this particular issue."

Testimony preview: McDowell on network neutrality

Republican Federal Communications Commissioner Robert McDowell will testify at a network neutrality hearing on May 5 that existing antitrust laws are sufficient to prevent abuses by service providers.

Commissioner McDowell will argue that:

  • Nothing is broken in the broadband Internet access market that needs fixing;
  • Congress never gave the FCC the legal authority to act as it did;
  • The order is likely to cause more harm than good; and
  • Sufficient antitrust and consumer protection laws exist to prevent and cure any of the contemplated harms outlined in the order.

AG Holder: Rogue websites are 'substantial problem'

Attorney General Eric Holder briefly touched on several tech-related topics during an oversight hearing in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

When asked by Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT) for his view on intellectual property enforcement, AG Holder called piracy and copyright enforcement "a very, very substantial problem." AG Holder also called himself a "satisfied owner of both an iPod, iPad and an iPhone" but said the Justice Department will wait for the committee's hearing on mobile applications that store consumers' location data without their consent before determining whether to take action against the firms involved, which include Apple and Google. Finally, AG Holder said the Department of Justice is more than willing to collaborate with the Committee as it prepares to overhaul the Electronic Communications Privacy Act.

Chairman Rockefeller not surprised as AT&T, Sprint vie for his affections

Senate Commerce Chairman Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) does not sound like he was hugely moved by AT&T and Sprint this week as they vied to win his sympathies concerning the proposed merger of AT&T and T-Mobile, which his committee will review.

Sprint and AT&T squabbled this week over how the merger could impact the powerful Senate chairman's home state in the first of a handful of arguments that could flare up in Washington on how the combination would affect voters represented by key members of the House and Senate. The argument started when Sprint made a formal request for the Public Service Commission in West Virginia to open a proceeding on the merger. AT&T shot back with a statement from its mid-Atlantic executive Michael Schweder calling Sprint's effort "cynical" and raising doubts about whether the company really has West Virginia's best interests at heart. Despite all the wooing, Chairman Rockefeller, on whole, did not sound particularly surprised or moved by all the attention.

Rep Waters: FCC's Network Neutrality Rules Could Harm Consumers

Rep Maxine Waters (D-CA) took aim at the Federal Communications Commission's network neutrality rules in a speech to a Computer and Communications Industry Association meeting in Washington.

An early supporter of the net-neutrality rule initiative, she was less sanguine on the resulting compromise rules. The FCC's new network-neutrality rules are insufficient and could harm consumers, she told the group, opining about the resulting rules arrived under "the immense pressure exerted on the FCC from industry stakeholders and some Members of Congress." The rules, approved in December but which will not go into effect for several more months, were the product of negotiations with industry stakeholders and a stand-down from initial proposals by the chairman to classify Internet access under some Title II common carrier regulations. Among the compromises was applying only some of the regulations -- transparency and non-blocking -- to wireless broadband. The FCC said there are legitimate network management and architecture differences that justified the disparate treatment, but Rep Waters was, and is, not convinced.

Wyden Aims To Protect Digital Goods From Some Taxes

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) plans to introduce legislation with Sen. John Thune (R-SD) that would block state and local taxes on digital goods such as music or software downloads if there is no similar tax on similar physical goods, such as CDs. The legislation would ban "multiple and discriminatory" taxes on goods delivered electronically. The legislation would not impact the efforts of states and some retailers to require online retailers like Amazon to collect sales taxes from customers in states where those companies don't have a physical presence.

How Consumers Would Benefit From the AT&T/T-Mobile USA Merger

[Commentary] AT&T|T-Mobile merger critics argue that reducing the number of broadband service providers could allow the remaining service providers to increase the cost of monthly subscription fees. The merger partners dispute this point. But this "cost" critique ignores a crucial question: what do broadband consumers believe is of value in the wireless environment? The simple answer is "content" (that list includes such thing as music, movies, and games). Many Broadband customers will likely spend larger amounts of money on this content than on their monthly service plans. Yet critics of the merger ignore this essential point and focus instead on "price, price, and price."

To the Songwriters Guild of America, the key question is: what value do consumers stand to gain, and what do they stand to lose, from this combination? Our conclusion is, because of the content-protection values advanced by the acquiring party -- AT&T -- and because of the economic importance that consumers place on music and other content when utilizing wireless and broadband services, consumers stand to gain significant content value by the merger. Given that potential price increases resulting from the merger are far from proven, the significant enhanced value that consumers should experience from properly protected content places this merger solidly in the public interest.

TV At Any Cost No Longer The Rule For Many Young Adults

[Commentary] Long-time entertainment thinking was that no matter how poor people were they always found a way to own a TV set. No money left for clothes, food, or toiletries? No problem. This kind of thinking goes back to an even earlier theory, that, in the 1930s, at the height of the depression, people still went to the movies. New Nielsen data shows some remarkable chinks in this theory: Nielsen says for the first time in 20 years there were fewer U.S. homes with TVs in one year versus the previous year -- 114.7 million (projection for the 2012 TV season) versus 115.9 million in 2011. You are probably are thinking the obvious -- the dreaded "C-C" words: cord-cutting. And you wouldn't be entirely wrong. Nielsen did attribute the decline to economic conditions. Dating back to 2008, before the start of the big recession, rural and poor citizens, as well as young, just-out-of-college consumers, decided against TV sets and all modern services that are attached to it. Price was a big issue.

Two big questions:

  1. How will these habits morph into a world with costlier TV/video devices, pricier cable TV packages, and sure-to-escalate consumer fees from Internet access and premium digital video programming?
  2. Better still -- driving more fear for some TV executives -- what new batch of U.S. viewers, however small, might be added to those already opting out of the big consumer entertainment market?

Do-Not-Track Bill Clears California Judiciary Committee

A proposed privacy bill in California aimed at ensuring that consumers can opt out of online tracking has cleared the state's Senate Judiciary Committee by a 3-2 vote.

The measure (SB 761), introduced last month by California Sen. Alan Lowenthal, requires the state attorney general to issue regulations that would require Web companies to notify state residents about online data collection and allow them to opt out. The bill, backed by Consumer Watchdog, applies not only to so-called personally identifiable information like users' names, but also to unique identifiers, such as customer numbers of IP addresses. The measure specifically allows consumers to opt out of collection of data relating to the sites they visited, their geolocation, and the time and date of visits, among other items. Consumers would be able to sue companies that disregard the measure for up to $1,000 per violation.