October 2010

The Future of Television & The Digital Living Room

[Commentary] Nobody can predict 100% what the future of television will be so I won't pretend that I know the answers. But I do know that it will form a huge basis of the future of the Internet, how we consume media, how we communicate with friends, how we play games and how we shop. Video will be inextricably linked to the future of the Internet and consumption between PCs, mobile devices and TVs will merge. Note that I didn't say there will be total "convergence" ­ but I believe the services will inter-operate. The digital living room battle will take place over the next 5-10 years, not just the next 1-2. But with the introduction of Apple TV, Google TV, the Boxee Box & other initiatives it's clear that this battle will heat up in 2011. The following is a framework for understanding the issues. This is where the digital media puck is going.

1) "Over the Top" video distribution, 2) Attempts at "moving up the stack", 3) The "second screen", 4) Content bundling, 5) Torso TV, 6) YouTube meets the television, 7) Content discovery ­ new metaphors, 8) Gaming & TV, 9) Social media meets digital content, 10) The changing nature of content & the role of the narrative.

Horner, Dayton, Emmer on Minnesota's broadband role

A lot of people think it's the public infrastructure issue of the 21st Century. Economic development authorities, especially outstate, will tell you their communities will die on the vine without it. The federal government is putting a couple hundred million dollars into it in Minnesota as we speak. You can get into some heated arguments around the state about the marketplace, competition and community action for the public good. Seems like a ready-made issue for serious policy discussion. In July, a Star Tribune editorial called for high-level campaign debate on the topic. After the Blandin Foundation's forum on broadband in Brainerd last week, Peters asked University of Minnesota-Crookston professor Jack Geller why that didn't happen. First he made the obvious point that in a race dominated by how to make the state's financial ends meet, it's tough for anybody to talk about new investments. But he also noted that not very many in the press have asked the candidates about it.

Bringing ultra high-speed broadband to Stanford homes

Google is teaming with Stanford University to build an ultra-high speed broadband network to the university's Residential Subdivision, a group of approximately 850 faculty- and staff-owned homes on campus.

Through this trial, Google plans to offer Internet speeds up to 1 gigabit per second -- more than 100 times faster than what most people have access to today. The plan is to start breaking ground in early 2011. To be clear, this trial is completely separate from Google's community selection process for Google Fiber, which is still ongoing. Google's ultimate goal is to build to at least 50,000 and potentially up to 500,000 people, and we still plan to announce our selected community or communities by the end of the year. Stanford's Residential Subdivision -- the first "beta" deployment to real customers -- will be a key step towards that goal. Google'll be able to take what we learn from this small deployment to help scale our project more effectively and efficiently to much larger communities. Why did Google decide to build at Stanford? Most important was Stanford's openness to us experimenting with new fiber technologies on its streets. The layout of the residential neighborhoods and small number of homes make it a good fit for a beta deployment. And its location -- just a few miles up the road from Google -- will make it easier for Google engineers to monitor progress.

Cable may double Internet access bills

Cable subscribers should brace for ballooning Internet bills. A new report suggests that cable companies will have to double charges for Internet service if "cord cutting" -- opting to watch shows online instead of through traditional TV -- catches on with consumers.

According to Morgan Stanley media analyst Ben Swinburne, a plethora of Web-enabled TVs and other Internet viewing options are making it easier for consumers to cancel their cable. For instance, Internet-connected TV sets offer consumers the ability to access not only traditional TV but also movies on Apple's iTunes, Google's YouTube and TV networks' own Web sites. Already, programmers including Time Warner's TNT and TBS, are creating apps for Google TV, a new service that is incorporated into Sony's Web-connected TV set. If a "material" number of households cut the cord, Swinburne said cable and satellite-TV providers will have to make up for the lost profits -- most likely by jacking up the cost of the broadband services they provide alongside cable packages. Swinburne said the migration to the Web will also push cable and satellite operators to offer more flexible pricing based on broadband consumption.

Blumenthal seeks better planning for Stage 2

Dr David Blumenthal, the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology at Department of Health and Human Services, said planners developing Stage 2 meaningful-use criteria under the federal electronic health-record incentive program will have slightly more strategic-thinking time than they had in creating Stage 1 criteria.

"We're mindful of the fact that the first go-round was very rushed," Dr Blumenthal told members of the federally chartered Health IT Policy Committee. Working under such tight deadlines "didn't allow for careful forward planning," Dr Blumenthal said. "I want to do better this time." To qualify for federal EHR incentive payments, providers must use EHRs in a "meaningful manner," meeting criteria that the ONC and CMS set after receiving recommendations from the committee. Oct. 1 was the start date for hospitals for the first payment year of the incentive program; the Stage 1 criteria are good for two years.

Kerry Aide: No Consensus, No Incentive Auctions

Danny Sepulveda, an aide to Sen John Kerry (D-MA), said that unless the Federal Communications Commission, computer and wireless companies, and broadcasters can come to a meeting on the minds about freeing up mobile broadband, legislation giving the FCC the power to hold incentive auctions isn't going to happen.

He also said Congress would want to know how much they will be paying broadcasters. "If we are going to approve an incentive auction system and not know how much of the public's money is going to be transferred to private actors, that is going to be a real challenge for Congress," Sepulveda said, adding that there would have to be some kind of cap on the payment as well. Sen Kerry has co-sponsored a bill that would give the FCC the authority to hold an incentive auction, which would allow it to compensate broadcasters for giving over spectrum for wireless broadband. Sepulveda said not to look for any action on that bill in the lame duck session, and suggested that a lot more needed to be done before it could pass, including getting all the panelists on the same page, educating the public about the spectrum crunch and giving Congress and broadcasters a better idea of how much money it was going to be transferring from the government to private industry.

Canada project aims to track BlackBerry traffic

Canadian computer scientists have launched a project to track BlackBerry traffic exiting Research In Motion's encrypted network, with a focus on countries that have sought greater access.

The United Arab Emirates said this month that it had resolved a dispute with RIM, without providing details, while a source said in August that RIM had given Saudi Arabia codes to allow authorities to track its BlackBerry Messenger service. RIM has granted Indian authorities access to Messenger but remains locked in negotiations over access to encrypted data sent via the Waterloo, Ontario-based company's enterprise servers. The project, called RIM Check, is being conducted by the University of Toronto's Citizen Lab and Ottawa-based think tank SevDev Group.

Most Americans still watch TV in real time

Nearly 70 percent of Americans still watch their favorite television shows at the time they are broadcast, and only 16 percent record them to watch at a later date, a Marist College poll found.

9% of respondents watched their shows online and seven percent do not watch TV at all. Nearly 80 percent of Americans over 45 years-old watch TV traditionally -- as it is broadcast over the air or on cable or satellite networks -- while that figure falls to 56 percent for people under 45, the poll found. More younger Americans watched TV online or record it through Digital Video Recorder (DVR) than older Americans. The poll's findings highlight the use of DVR technology and the Internet as alternative ways to watch TV and, in some cases, reduce exposure to TV advertisements.

Television broadcasters block Google TV

Walt Disney, NBC Universal and CBS block their shows from Google's new Web TV service, throwing a wrench into the company's plans to expand from computers to the living room.

News Corp is also considering blocking access to shows on its Website, but a decision has not yet been made. "Everybody knows the lock that Google has on Internet traffic in terms of advertising. If you take that model and you extend it to the television, suddenly Google's power becomes enormous in the advertising space and the broadcasters don't like that idea," said Gartner analyst Van Baker.

GOPers Have More 'Fans' Than Dems

Republican candidates have nearly 2.5 times as many Facebook fans than do Democratic candidates with less than two weeks to go before the midterm election, according to an analysis compiled by the Allfacebook.com, an independent site which covers all things Facebook.

According to the site, as of 12 p.m. on Thursday (Oct. 21), Republican candidates claimed 3,131,451 fans on Facebook in aggregate, versus 1,280,358 fans for Democrats. Independent candidates claimed nearly 47,000 fans, per the analysis, which includes Congressional, Senatorial and Gubernatorial races.

Republicans make up four of the top five candidates with the most fans, according to AllFacebook.com, with Arizona Sen. John McCain (who surely had a headstart running for president in 2008) leading the way with 711,312 fans. Second is Republican Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, who boasts 340,334 fans. Republican California Gubenatorial candidate Meg Whitman is currently in third place with 168,038 fans; while Marco Rubio, a Republican running for Senate in Florida, is in fifth place with 129,291 fans. The lone Democrat in the top five is Bill White, who is running for governor in Texas (White claims 146,862 fans).