Smart Dictators Don't Quash the Internet

[Commentary] The Egyptian experience suggests that social media can greatly accelerate the death of already dying authoritarian regimes. But while it's important to acknowledge the role that the Internet played in the Egyptian uprising, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the protesters were blessed with a government that didn't know a tweet from a poke—as illustrated most of all, perhaps, by its desperate (and belated) gambit in temporarily shutting off the country's access to the outside world.

The lethal blow that the Internet has helped to deliver to the Mubarak regime is likely to push fellow tyrants to catch up on the latest developments in Silicon Valley and learn the ropes of online propaganda. The most urgent Internet question facing many dictators today is what to do about American social networking sites like Facebook. Many are bound to follow the lead of Russia and China, which have championed homegrown competitors. An online group calling for the overthrow of the Russian government wouldn't survive for long on Vkontakte, Russia's alternative to Facebook. Judging by the relative success of Moscow and Beijing in taming the democratic potential of the Web, it seems dictators learn fast and are perfectly capable of mastering the Internet. It's only by anticipating their response that those of us who care about democracy in the West can make their tough methods less effective. After all, these regimes have turned mostly to Western companies and consultants for advice about the technology of repression. Triumphalism about recent events in the Middle East is premature. The contest is still in its early stages, and the new age of Internet-driven democratization will endure only if we learn to counter the sophisticated measures now being developed to quash it.