Will Verizon’s iPhone Shake Up the Mobile Market? Not So Much.

[Commentary] Does the Verizon iPhone have the potential cause disruption to all other carriers in the US market now that iPhone is on the carrier with the largest geographic coverage and with the most current subscribers?

The iPhone hardware with its slight redesign and new mobile hotspot feature is nice but the impact of a Verizon iPhone on the US mobile market isn't nearly as big as it would have been a year or two ago. Without the iPhone, Verizon invested itself heavily into selling Google Android handsets. And now that AT&T is losing iPhone exclusivity, it, too, is turning to Android. After 3.5 years of exclusively grabbing iPhone customers, AT&T is surely keeping a close eye on how many people leave for a Verizon iPhone. Some potential defectors may be held back due to AT&T’s Early Termination Fee, which was raised in May to $325 from $175, but those that have faced coverage issues in their particular areas could bolt to Verizon. How many customers will switch? Maybe around 2 million. February is likely to be a big month for Verizon iPhone sales, but as we approach the summer, that number should flatten out, or even decrease on a month-to-month basis. Why? Because Apple has consistently followed an annual summer refresh cycle for it’s iPhone and there’s no reason to think it will stop now simply because it has one more carrier in the US. As a result, customers on the fence about the current Verizon iPhone may hold off as we approach the anticipated new iPhone announcement in five short months. Traditionally, summer iPhone sales jump due to new model availability and this year is likely to be no exception.