Comcast's NBC-U Dreams May Be Online Video's Nightmare

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[Commentary] Right now, there's a very good chance that most people in America will soon have just one choice for truly high-speed Internet access suitable for watching video -- their local cable monopoly.

With cable's DOCSIS 3.0 as an intermediate step, we're reaching the era of true convergence. Soon, all those cable channels will be replaced by virtual digital segments of a single all-purpose fast pipe to the home, providing voice, video & data across one connection. If you're writing a new app or developing a new online service, you should be worried: There's no guarantee that whatever you're doing will work. Why? Because these large cable carriers won't face real competition and have every incentive to favor their own business plans, they may not be interested in supporting yours.

Right now, they're doing their best (even linking up with the Tea Party) to convince America that having rules of the road protecting consumers and new online businesses amounts to a "government takeover of the Internet." Don't believe it for a minute. These giant companies want to make sure that the Internet poses no threat to them, and they have the market power (and political power) to ensure that their profits remain intact. The Comcast/NBCU merger is aimed right at competition -- avoiding any series of steps that might result in having dumb (but big) pipes serving the areas where Comcast now has dominion, and avoiding having Comcast's pipe itself made dumb. If the merger goes through as Comcast proposes, the new NBCU will have the power in Comcast's market areas (where it routinely has a 60 percent-plus share of local pay-TV customers) to raise other pay-TV providers' (satellite, small cable, telephone, nascent online distributors) costs of doing business substantially.


Comcast's NBC-U Dreams May Be Online Video's Nightmare