The math suggests that Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) funding will be depleted sometime in early 2024. That means the clock is ticking for the US government to move the needle in the coming months. "I think the biggest issue for the second half of this year is how that gets resolved," said Grant Spellmeyer, CEO of ACA Connects. He said the clock is running out when governors will be lavishing more attention on the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program. But few have their eye on the ball. "The silence [about the ACP funding issue] has been notable," he said. "Based on my trips around the Hill, a handful of committee councils are aware of the situation and pay attention to it ... Once it runs out of money, it's just going to stop." Spellmeyer warned that there's still no clear answer to the problem, but suggested that the ball needs to get rolling by this fall. A stoppage will impact millions of US consumers who rely on ACP to help fund their connectivity needs. 

The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) is still working to provide additional guidance on the Broadband, Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) Program, which is expected to kick off in earnest when the NTIA issues funding allocations for each state and territory on June 30. Among the unresolved questions include what flexibility there will be around the "Buy America" requirement on the BEAD program, which the NTIA recently recommitted to after President Joe Biden raised the topic in his State of the Union speech. Other remaining concerns amongst service providers include whether federal dollars will allow for overbuilding in areas where providers have already invested private capital, an issue that may get more complex as states gather their own data on their unserved and underserved areas and present challenges to the NTIA in response to their estimated BEAD amounts, prior to getting their official allocations.

One of the most interesting aspects of the upcoming Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) grants is that the Infrastructure Ivestment and Jobs Acy requires states to solicit feedback from the public. I can’t recall that ever happening with any grants in the past—normally the rules are handed down from on-high, and that’s that. States have to solicit feedback on two grant programs. First will be each state’s share of the $42.5 billion of BEAD broadband infrastructure grants. Second is the state’s portion of $1.44 billion in digital equity grants. Most states are soliciting feedback on the two grant programs at the same time, although this can be done separately. The listening sessions can be virtual, or the state can send folks out to talk to you live. The federal rules that created the grants say that the states have to reach out to ‘all corners’ of the state to solicit feedback. I interpret that to mean the state must reach out to local government, non-profits, local broadband committees, and any other stakeholder groups that want to talk to them. Most states are either in the process of these listening sessions or will be soon. I strongly recommend that anybody that sponsors a listening session take the time first to organize the issues to be sure to make all of the needed points. States are required to respond to questions asked in these listening sessions and to forward the questions and responses to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration. But that means that a community or organization needs to ask specific questions if you want a response.

President Joe Biden’s administration has set an ambitious goal to deliver Internet for All using $42.5 billion in funding from the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program. It’s not entirely clear how realistic that goal is. But in an environment where operators have turned to expansions in un- and underserved areas to drive net additions due to low move activity, it’s worth asking what will happen to the market once every household in the country is connected. MoffettNathanson's Craig Moffett said that the growth rate in broadband has already slowed dramatically. And in a post-BEAD world, “the growth rate should slow to something close to the rate of new household formation in the [US], which has historically been less than 1% per year.” Beyond that, “everything else will be a battle for market share gains,” he said. Moffett added a look at mature broadband markets which are already fully penetrated offers a “pretty good preview for what the whole country will look like.” While cable and fiber players have tried to paint fixed wireless as a term-limited solution due to spectrum capacity constraints, Recon Analytics founder Roger Entner said operators like Verizon and T-Mobile which have millimeter wave assets will remain competitive even in urban areas. Moffett flagged satellite TV as a potential loser, because "The DBS [direct broadcast satellite] operators have increasingly focused on rural customers for whom cord-cutting isn’t an option. When wired broadband comes to rural America, the satellite operators won’t just have to compete against cable, they’ll also have to compete against Netflix and Hulu, as well,” he explained. Ultimately, Moffett concludes that “There’s no reason to think that growth will reaccelerate [post-Covid] given that [the U.S. broadband market] is that much closer to full saturation.”