Republican presidential race is a mess; Blame Citizens United.

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Going back to 1952, just three candidates finishing second in New Hampshire went on to win the party’s nomination. Only one, George W. Bush, won the general election. Further, six of the past seven nominees garnered at least 30 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. But the 2016 Republican race has confounded conventional wisdom. Commentators have chalked it up to the oddity and volatility of Trump’s candidacy, as well as the failure to pick a single “establishment” candidate. Although these are certainly factors, two larger, structural forces are at work that belie historical patterns.

The first is money. Citizens United changed fundraising rules in a way that impinges on the GOP’s desire for a business-as-usual race. It used to be that candidates required early wins to gain enough momentum and donations to compete into March. In the post-Citizens United era, that’s no longer true. Bush’s war chest is so sizable that even if he continues on his present trajectory, he will still have enough in the coffers to stay in the race as long as he wants. The fact is that a billionaire could write a check to any of the candidates tomorrow, allowing them to amass delegates at the margin and press forward regardless of popular support. And there’s precedence for that. Big donors such as Sheldon Adelson allowed candidates such as former senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) and former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) to stay in the 2012 race long past their expiration dates. The lesson of Citizens United? Billionaires can’t buy elections, but they can buy chaos.


Republican presidential race is a mess; Blame Citizens United.