The Invisible Primary Means No TV Ads. For Now.

There’s a reason the early part of the presidential nomination contest is called the invisible primary: There are no television ads yet. Voters in key states should enjoy the lull while it lasts, which could be until summer or maybe even longer. The main reason the candidates may wait is simple: super PACs. Most of the early ads in 2012 came from the campaigns, not from affiliated political action committees. Only a few of the 2012 candidates had affiliated super PACs; now most serious candidates will. Because super PACs can raise any amount of money from donors while contributions to campaign committees are capped at $2,700 per person for the primary election, it can be easier to raise the money to pay for expensive television ads via the super PACs.

A round of television advertising could be paid for by a few donors, leaving the candidate’s campaign free to spend its money on other activities -- or to bank as much of the money as possible until later in the year. That might mean earlier ads will come from super PACs, while candidate ads happen later. This is a big change from the last fully open presidential contest eight years ago, before super PACs existed. By the end of March 2007, Barack Obama had raised more than $25 million for his campaign, while Mr. Romney had raised almost $21 million. (John McCain, the eventual nominee for the GOP, did not start raising money until April of that year.) In 2015, none of the higher-profile politicians have even filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, let alone formally created a campaign committee.