For Political Analysts, Ground Keeps Shifting

FOR POLITICAL ANALYSTS, GROUND KEEPS SHIFTING
[SOURCE: New York Times, AUTHOR: Jim Rutenberg]
This campaign cycle has put pre-vote diagnostics to a test that they have failed when submitted to the hyperkinetic coverage of 24-hour cable, the blogosphere, and new real-time reporting on newspaper and magazine Web sites. The contours of the presidential race now look nothing like those generally predicted on cable news, on the Internet and in print in the year before the casting of the first votes. Election coverage in the mainstream news media has lurched from a storyline predicting certain political death for Senator John McCain, to one about a relatively easy ride to the Democratic nomination by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, and to another about a general election “showdown” between two New York politicians, Mrs. Clinton and former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani. The media predictions had real-world consequences for the candidates, especially Sen. McCain's fundraising. Aides to John Edwards, who dropped out of the race last week after trailing in polls, fund-raising, and, finally, votes, contend that his chances were badly hurt by a lack of coverage compared to Sens Obama and Clinton. In interviews on Tuesday, two anchors, Wolf Blitzer of CNN and Keith Olbermann of MSNBC, said that if this election year had taught them anything, it was to avoid relying too heavily on polls that provide only a snapshot of an unpredictable electorate.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/us/politics/07media.html?_r=1&ref=toda...
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