Rarely has the political landscape changed so dramatically virtually overnight. The twin events of the takeover of Ted Kennedy's Senate seat by Republican Scott Brown and the Citizens United ruling by the Supreme Court have not just entranced Washington, but also Madison Avenue.
Analysts of all persuasions, including TVB, are anticipating a cascade of political dollars during 2010. How should broadcasters be telling advertisers of all kinds to prepare for it? First, let's look at the changed political landscape. The Brown win has energized the Republican Party. It will be a great boost for fundraising and for fielding more competitive candidates. It is clear there will now be a record number of tight races in the House this fall — as many as 70 — as well as hot gubernatorial and Senate races.
But the news that has the media community most excited is the 5-4 Supreme Court ruling overturning key elements of the McCain-Feingold Act. The ruling allows corporations, unions, trade associations, interest groups and individuals to advertise directly for or against the election of specific candidates. And there is no blackout period. Groups had previously been barred from advertising 60 days prior to Election Day.
So what's our take-away? Clearly both the Brown victory and the new unrestricted class of candidate advertiser are going to put upward pressure on 2010 campaign spending. How much? Nobody knows. But estimates of plus $300 million to $500 million, reported in the press, seem to be appropriate.
