[Commentary] "What's going to happen to The New York Times?" Can The New York Times's ownership and business be sustained into the teeth of historic changes in the media? First to the broader issue of ownership: Several reports have suggested that the capital structure of The New York Times Company, with $1 billion in debt and declining revenue, means it will be kicked into play. It makes for a tangy news narrative but lacks logic. The company is well within its existing debt covenants, and two transactions — a sale-leaseback of the building and a $250 million loan that included warrants from the Mexican industrialist Carlos Slim Helú — probably have given it the wherewithal to operate into 2011. If there is a recovery, six months away at least, will the advertising spent on newspapers return to anything like pre-recession levels? Many analysts don't think so, and if that's the case, paying for newsgathering will require additional participation from the consumer, which is why there is a great deal of talk about subscriptions and micropayments. Finding the sweet spot between protecting the newspaper's digital ad sales and extracting additional subscription revenue is paramount. For most of its history, The New York Times has had legions of detractors — competitors, gadflies, subjects — who wished it were dead. But given its inherent competitive strengths, brand value and ownership, it will probably take more than a change in publishing economics to make it so.
