Local TV Stations Anticipate Severe Downturn in '09

Local TV stations, already wrestling with technology that changes how people watch their programs and the resulting fallout of ad dollars, have even worse news to consider: The TV-station trade association, the Television Bureau of Advertising, has severely recast its 2009 forecast for local TV advertising downward, suggesting that local stations are about to see their situation go from bad to worse. The trade group said today it now anticipates total spot TV ad revenue to fall 7% to 11% in 2009, down from a previous forecast of a 2% to 5% drop. Local spot revenue will fall between 4% and 8%, the TVB said, compared with its previous forecast of up 2% to down 1%. Meanwhile, national spot advertising is set to decline between 11.5% and 15.5% in 2009, the group said, down from a previous forecast of 7% to 10%. The group also said it expects total 2008 spot revenue to fall 7.1% from last year, rather than coming in flat, as was forecast in September.