MPG, an agency owned by global advertising and communications services group Havas, is predicting that Sen Barack Obama will win the 2008 presidential election. OK, sure, a number of people are doing that, but MPG is even providing the margin of victory in the battleground states, as opposed to identifying which candidate is ahead at the present time, which is what most polls indicate. According to Joe Abruzzo, evp, research at MPG who oversaw the development of Resonance, the tool uses "agent-based" algorithm modeling to predict consumer behavior. The shop is rolling out the new tool to clients to help them predict behavior and consumer attitudes toward products and brands. For the election prediction, MPG tabulated the responses of 1,200 "likely" voters that were quizzed on a number of issues concerning the two presidential candidates such as trust, leadership and consistency of their stands. Also tossed into the mix: views being expressed across the blogosphere, as well as the media strategies and messages that the candidates are likely to use in the remaining weeks of the campaign.
